More Census Bureau Propaganda

Terrence Hill

Here we go again. More politicised demographic predictions from the Census Bureau.  These projections are then hyped by the Brookings Institute, and then by a wide array of mainstream media, from the New York Times to the New Republic.  The take home message? White people need to give up the fight to govern themselves because Whites are in demographic decline and—depending on which news source you read—will be a minority by the year 2044 or 2050. As a result, there is no point for Whites in opposing immigration because the immigration we already have will soon make Whites a minority.

Our elites craft this take home message of despair to persuade White people to give up the fight against non-White immigration and any attempt to establish a natural elite that share our racial and cultural characteristics.  We are supposed to glance at the published colored charts, the bar graphs, and the highlighted bullet points that scream “Whites are finished” and then make our peace with reality.

One author in particular leads this charge. He is William H. Frey, a demographer and a senior fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program of Haim Saban‘s Brookings Institute. He uses the newly published “data” from the Census Bureau to beckon White people into an open coffin, lay down of our own volition and watch quietly as our elites shut the lid tight.

Acknowledging the inspiration and support of his wife, Olivia Golden, Frey triumphantly declares the end of the White era in his book, Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America (Brookings Institution Press, 2014). He gleefully pronounces that aged White males will be banished from the halls of power. The new nation of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and mixed-race peoples will dominate the political scene. And of course—unacknowledged—is the fact that the self-chosen will rule unchallenged over this diverse American ghetto as our national slumlords.

Just a titles of some of the news commentary give you an idea of how pleased the liberal media is with Frey’s proclamation.

In Salon: “Karl Rove and Fox News’ worst nightmare: White males, the changing South and the truth about demographics and Democrats” (Salon, Sunday, Dec 14, 2014).

Again in Salon: “Enjoy It While It Lasts! GOP Base Is Still White and Aging” (Salon, November 5, 2014).

In Newsweek: “America’s Getting Less White, and That Will Save It” (12/6/14 Newsweek Opinion).

In the Daily Mail: “The incredibly detailed maps that show how a baby boom of Hispanic, Asian and black children is going to reshape America and make whites a minority by 2050” (November 7, 2014).

Closely following this title in the Daily Mail were the following bullet points:

  • “White birth rates are falling while immigrants and other minorities are having more children.”
  • “The population surge comes from immigrants having children in the US – not directly from immigration.”
  •  “The incredibly detailed maps that show how a baby boom of Hispanic, Asian and black children is going to reshape America and make whites a minority by 2050”

Frey follows up with interviews in the New York Times, and a wide assortment of other media outlets.  Our media elite allow Frey ample space to wax eloquent on this theme of White decline. He writes in the above mentioned opinion piece in Newsweek that,

America’s new diversity—poised to reinvigorate the country at a time when other developed nations are facing advanced ageing and population loss—can be celebrated.

The sweep of diversity that has just begun to affect the nation is the theme of my book, which draws from my examination of the most recent U.S. census, census projections and related sources. As a demographer who has followed U.S. population trends for decades, even I was surprised by the sheer scope of racial change that came to light with the 2010 census.

There are problems, however, with the Census Bureau’s projections, and with the work of William Frey in particular: The data he uses are not accurate. Further there is good reason to believe that William H. Frey and the demographers at the Census Bureau know this.

Let’s start with a look at the main source—indeed the only key source—that Frey uses in his latest propaganda volley.  As Frey mentions above, he bases his predictions on publications from the United States Census Bureau. The latest is found in the “U. S. Population Projections: 2014–2060.” The projections include a summary of its findings, and then crucially, the “Methodology, Assumptions, and Inputs for the 2014 National Projections.” I have carefully parsed the footnotes in Frey’s book, and can confirm that the Census Bureau is the only authoritative source for these key projections. All his other many sources elaborate or illustrate the points found in the Census Bureau data.

Let’s skip quickly over the problem of the base population figures for this report. This base population is drawn from the 2010 census. I merely note that this base population for the 2010 census includes a formula that inflates minority numbers without a corresponding inflation of the White population, even in areas of White poverty.  This has long been a method for assigning greater congressional representation to non-White areas and is quite controversial, not to say inaccurate.

Let’s also skip over the “base” population figure from 2013 which is extrapolated from the 2010 census estimate and then projected forward to 2013. This figure does not reflect the significant decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of non-White populations during the three year period from 2010 to 2013. Thus the “base” of the 2014 National Projections estimate is already faulty.

Let’s concentrate instead on the most glaring problem with these projections.

Both the methods and assumptions are at fault.  What would you think of a demographer in the year 1814 who averaged out the TFR of White people in the United States from 1790 to 1811, and then applied that decades old TFR till 1860? The American birth rate in the last few decades of the 18th century was remarkably high; indeed, demographers consider the Anglo-Saxon TFR for this period to be the highest in the world at that time with women averaging over eight children each.  But then the Industrial Revolution, urbanisation, and other factors led to a steady dramatic drop in the birthrate in the United States throughout the nineteenth century.  Using this method—of averaging the TFR from 1790 to 1811—would have projected a population by 1860 multiple times the actual size.

What would be insane, of course.

But that is precisely what the Census Bureau has done here.  The 2014 report states that the “Final birth registration data from NCHS for the years 1990 to 2011 were used as the numerators in our fertility rates.”

The NCHS stands for the National Center for Health Statistics which published the only reliable data on live births in the United States. Further, the Census Bureau report tells us that “The denominators used to calculate the fertility rates were derived from the intercensal estimates for the years 1990 to 2009 and the Vintage 2013 population estimates for 2010 to 2013.”

So this means that the TFR used is an average of the years 1990 to 2011 and that these are applied to the population “base” projected for 2013. The report then extrapolates these figures to 2060.

Of course this is absurd. While the TFRs of Whites during this period have been stable, only gently drifting downward, the TFRs of Blacks and Hispanics have been far higher, and while also drifting down, have accelerated downward in recent years—indeed collapsed—as shown by my previous article in the Occidental Observer. This collapse in non-White TFR is based on the reliable live birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics, not on the questionable construction of data and long-term predictions by the Census Bureau.

Naturally the TFRs constructed by this average from an earlier and higher level of births for non-Whites would then lead to vastly inflated figures for non-Whites when projected to the year 2060.  Here are the results of this absurd method. In, “Table 10 Projections of the Population by Sex, Hispanic Origin, and Race for the United States: 2015 to 2060,” we are treated to a set of numbers in ordered columns that arrive neatly at the conclusion that the United States will have a total population by 2060 of almost 417 million people. Of this,

Whites will have decreased from our present number from to 181, 930,000
Blacks will have increased from 39,782,00 to 54, 028,00,
Asians increased from 16, 978,000 to 37,879,000
American Indian/Alaskan Native increased from 2,359,00 to 2,637,000
Hispanics increased from 56,754,000 to 119, 044,000.

From this report we see projected that Hispanics will have almost doubled their population, even though their birthrate is currently at only replacement level, and falling quickly.  Blacks will have increased from almost 40 million to 54 million, again with TFR well below replacement level. Even odder, American Indian/Alaskan Natives will increase from 2.3 million to 2.6 million, with a TFR of only 1.35!  This is a similar TFR to countries in Southern Europe and parts of Asia that are facing demographic collapse.  There obviously cannot be immigration into this indigenous group of Native Americans and Alaskan Natives and yet they are still projected to grow. How? By constructing a TFR average from earlier decades when the rate was higher and then projecting this fantasy TFR into the distant future.

We are reminded in the report and from William H. Frey, that it is not immigration that is driving this demographic change, but rather, the TFR. A damning admission, given the fact the TFR is constructed from earlier decades. It also suggests that the people making these predictions want to avoid blaming future immigration for the consequences.

The message they are trying to convey is: Look, the horse is out of the barn. The immigration that has already occurred is more than enough to make Whites a minority. Therefore, opposing immigration because it will make Whites a minority is an exercise in futility.

We are also treated to the absurd conclusion in this same 2014 Census Bureau projection that “An alternative census bureau projection that assumes zero immigration shows projected Hispanic population growth of 60% between 2010 and 2050.[1]

Yet, with a TFR at only replacement level, and falling quickly, how can Hispanics, without any immigration, grow 60% by 2050? It is true that a bulge in the child bearing age cohort of Hispanics could lead for a time to an increase in population — even a lower than replacement TFR.  But by no means could it amount to a 60% increase. And given the rate of TFR collapse among Hispanics, the population is far more likely, as with Whites, Blacks, Asians and Native Americans, to decline in absolute terms during this projected period.

In terms of TFR it is a race to the bottom. While the White TFR is slightly higher than the Asian TFR, far higher than the American Indian TFR, lower than the Black TFR, and moderately lower than the Hispanic TFR, the TFR rate of decline among Blacks and Hispanics and Asians are far higher. Who will be left standing as King of the Hill remains to be seen. One thing is certain: White displacement is nowhere near a foregone conclusion, or even, if present trends continue, very likely. Of course, the reality is that the same people who so pleased with a White minority future are all in favor of continuing high levels of immigration.

What is clear is that neither Frey nor the Census projections use the TFR of the major racial groups in the United States from the ‘Births: Final Data for 2012’ National Vital Statistics Reports.[2] If they had used this dataset drawn from the most recent year we have final data, the projections would have been entirely different—and far less useful for the political purposes of our hostile elite.  As pointed out in my earlier article, the TFR of Hispanics, Blacks, Asian, and Native American populations have been collapsing—and this all before the downward pressure of free birth control offered by Obama care has come to full effect.

The propaganda however, proceeds apace.  Expect more of the same. The key for informed White people is this: the propaganda is false. We will not lose national sovereignty from birth rates—not with present trends. Changing immigration policy is still the fight that is ours to win.


  1. U. S. Census Bureau, “2009 National Population Projections (Supplemental): Summary Tables: Zero Net Migration Series.”
  2. ‘Births: Final Data for 2012’ National Vital Statistics Reports (NVSS); Vol. 62, No.9.
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