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The Ethnic Gap revisited
Richard McCulloch
November 7, 2008
In my
October 29 editorial titled "Maximize
the Racial Divide," I hoped for a large and clear polarization
of the racial vote, such as the black candidate winning with as little as
40% of the European vote (excluding Jews) and fully 80% of the
non-European vote — a racial gap far exceeding any other gap based on
gender, age, income, or region. Such a gap would clearly demonstrate that
race was the most important factor determining how people voted.
This
electoral divide was the subject of my analysis of the 2000 election titled
"The
Ethnic Gap" that appeared in the first issue of The
Occidental Quarterly.
Based on
the initial results of the 2008 election I am happy to report that my hopes
were essentially fulfilled, and the "Ethnic Gap" is alive and well, and as
determinative as it was in 2000. It seems that the economy didn't trump race
in this election after all, in spite of what the pundits might claim. All
the greatest economic crisis of the last 70 years did was restrict the
Ethnic Gap to the same importance and level of influence it had in the 2000
election.
In 2000
whites were 72% of the population but were 80.7% of the voters (down from
90% in 1976). In that election, whites gave Bush 54.8% of their 81.5 million
votes, or about 44.7 million votes. In 2008 whites are about 67% of the
population but comprised 74% of the voters, and they gave McCain 55% of
their 89.8 million votes, or about 49.4 million votes.
But what
is important to us is the European vote, which excludes Jews as well as
whites from North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. I assume that if
74% of the voters were white, then Europeans can be estimated to be 69% of
the voters and non-European whites to be 5%. This 5% can be broken down
further into 3% Jews and 2% other non-European whites. This means that 31%
of the total voters were non-European.
The
following analysis is based on the results of the
CNN
National Exit Poll but corrected for these assumptions —
that is, it is corrected for the assumption that Europeans are actually 69%
of the electorate and that non-Europeans classified as white make up 5% of
the electorate. It is also based on the assumption that non-European people
classified as white voted 80% for Obama. This is based on exit poll data for
Jews indicating that
77–78% of Jews voted for Obama and on the plausible
theory that Obama would have a strong appeal to Muslim Americans.
With these assumptions, the results show that the European vote split approximately 59/40 for McCain. (49,484,867 Europeans voted for McCain; this is 40.79% of all votes and 59.12% of European votes; 33,628,843 Europeans voted for Obama; this is 27.72% of all votes and 40.17% of European votes. The balance of white voters voted for minor parties.)
What this
means is that the Ethnic Gap is as large and determinative as it was in 2000
in spite of strong competition from the greatest economic crisis of the last
70 years. Without that crisis, and given the non-European identity of the
democratic candidate, it would certainly have been much greater than it was
in 2000, and probably would have given McCain the victory.
European-Americans did not elect Obama. They voted overwhelmingly against
him, voting for McCain by a margin that would be termed a landslide victory
if it applied to the total electorate. The American electorate remains
deeply divided on race, despite the claims that this election proves that
everything about race has changed in this country, that race is no longer a
consideration in elections, and that we are now all united in our support
for a president of color who will lead us on a path that will transcend race
— that will be the end of our race.
The
racial change heralded by this election is not a deep change in racial
attitudes, concerns or preferences, but an ongoing demographic change in the
racial composition of the population and electorate. That is the difference
between the results of this election and what the results would have been in
a similar contest as recently as eight years ago.
So
European-Americans and Europeans around the world, our racial kinsmen in
Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, should not be dismayed or
discouraged by what they are told by their elites — the triumphalist spin
spouted by multiracialists, racial Marxists and non-European peoples the
world over, that the once-great European people of America have been
overthrown, that we have been transformed by a racial revolution that has
overcome racial considerations and loyalties and cast them, and us, forever
into the dustbin of history.
Quite the
opposite, they should take heart. The fact is we are still here, and we have
not changed, and we have not surrendered. We have not collapsed like the
South Africans in 1994. The great majority of us still vote for the
interests of our race, with strong racial preferences and concerns, in spite
of strong competition from other major issues and problems.
What has
changed, and is changing, are the racial proportions of our population. That
is the transformation that is taking place: our replacement and
dispossession by demographic change. This is the same transformation that is
happening in most of the other European homelands. It is not a
transformation of our values and loyalties, our beliefs and spirit. We have
survived this test intact, and as a result will be more ready than ever for
the tests to come.
Permanent
URL:
http://www.theoccidentalobserver.net/authors/McCulloch-EthnicGap.html
