Tsar Wars

The on-again off-again meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is set to take place in Alaska this Friday. This formerly Russian possession is a most symbolic setting if indeed territorial exchanges are to be discussed. The form guide, however, suggests that it will be mostly a publicity stunt — a summit of mutually unrealistic expectations, as impossible to make real progress as it would be to make roasted ice cubes. The Russians are now beginning to capitalize strongly on their frontline momentum, and they still regard the conflict as something existential to their security and sovereignty. On the other hand, Trump salvaging something from project Ukraine seems to be an existential matter for his imperial ego.

What a difference a few months makes; Trump’s pendulous politicking has gone from ending the war in 24 hours to saber-rattling various sanctions and nuclear submarines through a battery of deadlines. Analysts are still at a loss to explain Trump’s change of heart and his decision to add Biden’s War to his own portfolio — the only official statement coming in June when Melania was watching a news report of some apartment blocks getting hit in Kiev. It’s deja vu for people who recall the first Trump term, where it was Ivanka’s tears for Syria that forced Trump to reverse course on that as well.

The MAGA faithful are decidedly livid at what is yet another betrayal of the America First credo. The base has long known of Trump’s weakness for Israel, but Ukraine is a bridge too far and a clear broken promise along with the Epstein List release. Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, Thomas Massie, Matt Gaetz and the rest of what could be called paleo-MAGA are right to assume that the neocons have won again, while even Marjorie Taylor Greene is questioning her place in the party. Perhaps Bannon and friends need to work on their golf game more, because it is currently warmonger Lindsey Graham who has regular access to probing the president over 18 holes.

Another issue that’s proved a deal-breaker for America Firsters is the freedom to protest Israel, which Trump first infringed through the universities and is now threatening to withhold natural disaster relief to any states or cities that boycott Israeli companies—what is fundamentally a First Amendment right. If there is a single moral to the story of AIPAC’s influence, it is that Jewish and Israeli lobbies are unnatural disasters on American civil liberty.

Not since William Buckley’s infamous neocon circumcision has a de-facto W.A.S.P. aligned so strongly with Israeli interests and against public opinion. Trump seemed genuinely taken aback that so much of his base now identifies as suffering Israel-fatigue — but if you want blind loyalty, get a guide dog. The only other head of state whose manic chauvinism for the Jewish state is comparable to Trump’s is that of eccentric Argentine Javier Milei, a man who takes the Wailing Wall name a little too literally, while also claiming to be the reincarnation of a gladiator from ancient Rome.

The cult of personality is not something to be ignored in times when the political process itself is part of the bread and circuses. Indeed, mavericks and outsiders would likely have never come to power without it, while the flipside usually means the people must bear a leader of tempestuous rule, self-admiration and overconfidence. Benito Mussolini famously wanted to straighten the Leaning Tower of Pisa — Trump wants to put the cane sugar back into Coke, but to each his own. There are a number of figures from antiquity who could be seen as historical analogues to President Trump, but the likeness is probably most congruent with Emperor Commodus. This was a man born in the purple yet obsessed with his public image and popularity among the plebeians, resorting to such ploys as artificially lowering the price of grain and performing as a gladiator in the Colosseum, slaying countless exotic beasts and crippled opponents.

It wasn’t so long ago that Trump’s supporters were merchandising the God Emperor meme online in his honor. But with Lyndsey Graham as the new First Buddy in this annus horribilis, MAGA looks to be dying — quite literally with the passing of mascot Hulk Hogan — and if Trump doesn’t reverse his heel turn soon, he can call The Undertaker for the midterms because the base has had enough. Once bitten, twice shy as Trump’s Republican predecessor used to try to say. It’s slowly dawning on people that what one Mayorkas can do in damage will outweigh what several Trumps can attempt to ameliorate, meanwhile Trump is choosing to relitigate the Russia hoax conspiracy (well past the statute of limitations). All the America First movement wanted was a genuine non-interventionist and immigration patriot, but after two fresh starts in office, Trump is yet to cross that Rubicon — rather it’s looking like he has once again just conned the rubes.

One group that hasn’t fallen for Trump’s bluff and bluster includes the leaders of India, Brazil and China, who stood firm in the face of tariff threats. Putin’s Russia was the mastermind behind the BRICS alliance and continues to be its galvanizing force. Should we have expected any less from the home of Tetris?

The current situation on the frontlines is likewise comfortably in Russia’s favor, as panic and desperation set in for the NATO powers. Last week, ZeroHedge reported that the Zelensky regime will now allow men and women over the age of 60 to enlist, adding to the forced mobilizations of young men, disabled men and even people with Down syndrome. At a time when the regime is short on supplies, manpower and even funds to pay active duty soldiers, the only thing growing is the Ukraine crazy train. In a move reminiscent of the ninth-century trial of Pope Formosus, a Ukrainian court has decided to indict Russian nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky for supporting the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, in spite of the man being dead for three years. Ukraine “cannot be counted among civilized countries,” opined Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto.

Russia, by contrast, presents a picture of confidence in light of its heavily sanctioned economy spurring domestic innovation and resolve. Russia is going to win the war, and the people know it. Putin’s approval now stands at 86%, which is just shy of his peak 88% rating from the year 2000. Russians are a pragmatic and results-oriented people, so it’s probably not of too much concern that a number of corrupt officials and incompetent generals fell from high places — it evidently led to rapid reform within the military and to battlefield success. A popular Russian anekdot on Putin’s ruthless efficiency that one is likely to hear from haters and supporters alike is as follows: Stalin appears to Putin in a dream and tells him, “I have two bits of advice for you: kill off all your opponents and paint the Kremlin blue.” When Putin asks, “Why blue?” Stalin responds: “I knew you wouldn’t object to the first instruction.”

Even abroad, Putin maintains his popular appeal, especially in the Global South where his unapologetic masculinity, traditional values and opposition to Western hegemony is admired. Whether he is a dictator by democratic consent or not is ultimately a matter for the Russian people, but various gripes about his alleged tsarist ambitions are something that can be dismissed by merely looking at who cast such aspersions. It is invariably the neoliberals and neocons, the biggest imperialists of them all, with might is right as their doctrine and a unipolar world as their vision. Trump’s tariff policies have already taken executive privilege to an unprecedented level, and the neocons would have no issue if such executive overreach was channeled into their bellicose global leadership agenda.

Possible sabotage of the peace talks in Alaska is a concern of several pundits who note the mismatched momentum of the two sides coming in. Analyst Brian Berletic considers the summit an unfathomable risk for the Russians to be taking given the recent sneak attack assassinations that the Americans carried out under the pretense of negotiations with Iran. However, there is another possibility that involves Putin sending a body double to Anchorage. Folks may recall the 2018 Singapore Summit in which a doppelganger stood in for Kim Jong-Un. Nobody even remembers why tensions with North Korea were at breaking point, but they soon subsided and Trump happily bagged the good publicity. It’s highly unlikely that Trump has any qualms about partaking in such charades for the cameras. His own political theatre seems to operate on a weekly cycle, as if naturally in sync with TV scheduling. As Jeffrey Sachs likes to say, “Russia plays chess, China plays go and the United States plays poker.” Trump is the epitome of this syllogism, while his counterparts focus on the long game.

Other pundits are similarly making mention of the mismatch in negotiation prowess — the Russians have Lavrov, Ushakov and Ryabkov, while the Americans have former property developer Steve Witkoff  (who has already undermined negotiations by supposedly misinterpreting a translator’s message). What use are envoys of Russian-Jewish ancestry if they haven’t preserved at least a smattering of the mother-tongue? Not since Education Secretary Linda McMahon referred to A.I. as “A1” has the Trump administration been this embarrassed by a miscommunication, although it can’t be easy when you work for a man who oscillates between hyperbole, superlatives and sarcasm.

Those who have dealt with Trump in a professional capacity often attribute his erratic decision making as a negotiation tactic, akin to good cop-bad cop. The less charitable view is that Trump’s train of thought resembles a Mobius strip, where the mere passage of time returns him to the same initial position but now having the opposite view. It’s generally agreed that the Americans hold practically no cards as far as Ukraine is concerned, but there are other things on the table. The optimist’s view is that, at the very least, the summit in Alaska will work toward a new treaty on nuclear arms, and that the US and Russia will cooperate in the Arctic. The pessimistic outlook is that Project Ukraine drags on for much longer, and that Trump tries to ban Russia from the 2028 Ozempic Games in Los Angeles.

It’s worth remembering that Putin has war hawks in his orbit as well who are now especially excited by the sight of wounded prey and wanting the quarry whole — rare earth minerals and all. In this context it may actually be Trump and Putin, the wasp and cagey bee, who are the cooler heads that prevail. The spy agencies and military-industrial complex will remain the chief obstacles to this process. My own prediction is that a partial ceasefire will be agreed and some constructive dialogue is reached before a second round of talks take place in St. Petersburg, Russia. Perhaps even firebrand Dmitry Medvedev will make an appearance and trade shot glasses with DUI-hire Pete Kegsbreath on the undercard. For now the war still has life left in it, indeed Trump needs more time to build one of his hotels on the Gaza Riviera and offer Zelensky residency. His philistine ways should have seen him expelled there long ago.