Mark Wauci: AIPAC Fury Day 18 Overview

Patarames discusses the heavy storm of USraeli strikes. Will Schryver attempts to do a bit of a deep dive into the numbers of munitions that have been expended. This is important because it was always known that those resources were limited and that resupply would be difficult. Of course, this was supposed to be a Weekend War. Woops!

Will Schryver @imetatronink

1h

 US Cruise Missile Expenditure

– Losing the war of attrition against Iran –

Prior to the recent commencement of war with Iran, the general consensus of Tomahawk cruise missiles loaded in the deployed destroyers and submarines was ~600 missiles.

It is now almost certain that few, if any, of these Tomahawks remain. And, given that the main US naval base in Bahrain has been destroyed, Souda Bay, Crete, is the only base within thousands of miles with the facilities necessary to reload the navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

Souda Bay is not fitted out to reload missile-carrying submarines, which would have to return to the United States mainland to be reloaded.

The bottom line is that the US Navy has now exhausted virtually its entire magazine depth of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

That leaves only the JASSM air-launched cruise missiles as a serviceable stand-off munition for attacking Iranian targets.

We know that the recent sorties of B1-B and B-52 bombers have all consisted of JASSM stand-off missiles (~600 mile maximum range).

If there have, in fact, been any B-2 bomber sorties in the past 18 days, they would also have almost certainly delivered JASSMs.

The United States’ worldwide total JASSM inventory at the beginning of 2026 was ~3000 units.

The B1-B can carry 24 JASSMs. The B-52 can carry 20 JASSMs. The B-2 can carry 16 JASSMs.

My rough guess for total strategic bomber sorties in the past 18 days would be in the range of 50 – 75 — so, an expenditure of at least 1000 JASSM cruise missiles.

In other words, at least one-third of the total JASSM inventory has been consumed in less than three weeks.

This brief analysis underscores why I have long argued that the US could not win a war of attrition against Iran.

People in Moscow and Beijing must be smiling. How will the US ever be able to launch its planned 2027 attack on China?

Worth repeating:

Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara

2h

Top US military strategist drops a BOMBSHELL on live TV: “Iran has just achieved what we spent 50 years trying to prevent… control of the Straits of Hormuz.” He admits the US military is trapped, strategically failed, and Iran is now more powerful than ever.

Yesterday Luke Gromen pointed out an ironic element in the big picture:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

Mar 16

Bessent now finds himself in the position of the Bank of England in 1992 when Soros, Druckenmiller, & Bessent “broke the BOE”:

Trying to prevent the USD from collapsing v. oil with a finite amount of oil reserves as markets & fundamentals are actively working against him.