Patricia Marins updates the war; on X
War Causes $3.2 Trillion Losses in Global Markets and pressure US-Israel
The United States is deploying its B-52 bombers to attack Iran, along with more B-2s, in a move that appears aimed at devastating Iran and forcing surrender.
Today, missiles and drones continued hitting… pic.twitter.com/SnRSSfmqOI
— Patricia Marins (@pati_marins64) March 4, 2026
@pati_marins64
War Causes $3.2 Trillion Losses in Global Markets and pressure US-Israel The United States is deploying its B-52 bombers to attack Iran, along with more B-2s, in a move that appears aimed at devastating Iran and forcing surrender. Today, missiles and drones continued hitting Israel and U.S. bases, but with one detail: almost no reaction from air defenses, which are likely being conserved to protect assets like airports, energy infrastructure, and military industry.
With daily costs potentially reaching $10 billion and, according to The Economic Times, losses of $3.2 trillion in global markets already reported in the first 48 hours of war, this is generating more pressure to end the conflict. Israel’s central bank governor has announced estimated losses of $17–20 billion. If Israel’s losses are that high, how much are the American ones?
The order is to intensify efforts to end the war quickly. However, the waves of bombings hitting Iran do not seem to have that effect. Iran’s entire military doctrine was built around such scenarios, which is why it has such an extensive network of multi-kilometer underground bases. I see no possibility of the war ending in the coming days for several reasons, including:
1. In addition to their naval strength of hundreds of remaining assets, Iran still maintains a sustained rate of fire, deploying dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones every daqui ;
2. The decentralization of operations. For example, anti-ship missiles are operated by four forces: IRGC, navy, army, and aerospace forces. The same decentralization applies to drones and other military assets, creating resilience;
3. The belief that the US and Israel cannot sustain a long war. Iranians know that, although missile attacks have been reduced, current waves are enough to continue neutralizing most U.S. bases in the region, maintain economic chaos in Israel and Arab countries, and drive losses in global markets;
4. Iranians are certain that no matter how many bombs fall, they will emerge victorious, since there is no way to destroy their nuclear program except by themselves, and the war has virtually suppressed internal opposition movements.
5. The attacks have not sparked internal guerrilla movements or any uprising against the government. On the contrary, the level of violence has increased support for the regime. It’s that old story: if the dose of the medicine is too high, it can have the opposite effect.
Ironically, Iran is heading toward a scenario similar to Ukraine’s, where everyone knows there’s no way to win against the Russians, but the cost keeps getting higher. In fact, when I read Pentagon reports, they remind me a lot of the Russian MoD’s in the early days of the Ukraine invasion. Iranian missiles and drones launched today face almost no resistance from air defenses already depleted in many areas, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Iranian naval forces are nearly intact, markets are in panic, and Iran still has dozens of underground military fortresses loaded with missiles and equipment. Anyone who thinks the US and Israel can sustain this war for weeks in this scenario is very optimistic.
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