Update 2 On Trump’s Latest Iran “Deal”

The pressure on Trump is unquestionably increasing. Iran is more than happy to allow this war to drag on, while the US military is degraded in a never ending exchange of low cost Iranian missiles and drones for high cost US systems. Iran is even happier to degrade the US economy, which Trump can ill afford. Yesterday the PPI—Producer Price Index, and a standard predictor of inflation to come—came in at over 6%. Fourth of July is less than a month away. Were you thinking of a barbecue?

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

 Prof. Robert Pape: “We’re about to enter the period of maximum leverage for Iran.”

He says when oil inventories hit the cliff in mid to late July or early August, Iran’s power spikes and stays high through the midterms.

Why cut a deal now when your leverage is about to go up? Trump can talk prices down for only so long. The physical market will take over.

Smart read on the timing.

And of course Trump’s economic antics have ravaged the rest of the world, including our closest trading partners. Trumpian geopolitics and economics have only worsened our rock and a hard place position:

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

16h

China first weaponized rare earths v. Japan in 2010, & yet the Japanese, with their legendary manufacturing & engineering prowess, have been unable to completely end their dependence on Chinese rare earths…16 years later.

Pretty good read on realistic timeline for US reshoring.

Quote

Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia

Jun 8

US asks China to resume rare-earth exports to Japan https://s.nikkei.com/49QF48p

So, rationally speaking—which may not cut much with a malignant narcissist like Trump—there is every reason to cut and run, leaving Iran in regional control. After all, trying to hang on looks like a losing proposition. And, by the way, am I the only one to notice that there have been no high profile condemnations of the escalated aggression coming from Moscow or Beijing? Or, at least, the responses appear distinctly muted. What do they know?

But cynicism abounds. Many believe that there is no long range plan here, just the usual Trumpian manipulation:

Perhaps more to the point:

Bark @barkmeta

14h

The Iran war “ended” the day before the biggest IPO in history, Trump’s birthday, and a UFC card at the White House.

Now, late yesterday Iran said they had no idea what Trump was talking about. I suggested that the “agreement” was simply the agreement that had been agreed to quite some time ago by the negotiators—but which Trump refused to sign on to because he was looking for a face saving exit. The agreement in question was simply Iran dictating terms because they’re in the driver’s seat. That seems somewhat confirmed:

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

 Tehran’s version of the deal endgame: Trump’s two front pressure campaign failed, and Washington just dropped its own amendments

Per Tasnim sources, the U.S. attempted to force changes to the 14 article draft from both directions at once, strikes from the sky and pressure through the Qatari mediators, and Iran rejected the modifications anyway.

Washington has now reportedly informed Tehran via Doha that its proposed amendments are no longer required, reverting to the text already on the table.

The draft still awaits final review by Iranian institutions, with sources calling everything else speculation until that concludes.

If this account holds, the great settlement is largely the deal Iran already had before the Tomahawks flew, a detail that reshapes who blinked this week.

Keep that last line in mind—who blinked. And ask yourself, Why? So, here’s what Iran put out this morning:

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24

BREAKING:

Iran publishes a 14-point draft peace memorandum with the United States.

Iranian state agency Mehr has released the full text of a proposed 14-point framework agreement between Iran and the United States.

– Full and immediate cessation of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon;

– Commitment by the United States to the principle of non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for the country’s sovereignty;

– Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days;

– Resumption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, taking into account agreements with Iran;

– Commitment by the United States to withdraw troops from territories bordering Iran;

– Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives, as well as full access for Iran to its financial resources;

– The United States and its allies must present a plan to restore Iran worth at least $300 billion;

That’s reparations.

– Within 60 days, negotiations must be held to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of all sanctions, as well as UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;

– Confirmation of Iran’s commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and renunciation of nuclear weapons production;

– Commitment by the United States not to increase the number of troops in the region or impose new sanctions during the negotiations;

– Unfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets within the 60-day period of final negotiations, with half the amount to be provided to Iran before they begin;

– Creation of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement;

– Approval of the final agreement by a UN Security Council resolution;

– Final negotiations will not begin until half of the Iranian assets are unfrozen, oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted.

The Foreign Ministry of the Islamic regime noted that the document is preliminary and that Tehran has not yet made a final decision.

But Trump is already backing out and trying to deny it all:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

29m

Translation: there is no deal; there never was a deal; Iran is dictating the terms, which have never once been altered from the moment of their original submission. The US [= Trump] cannot assent to those terms. Therefore the war will likely continue after the US markets close today.

One supposes that someone got to Trump between late yesterday and early today. Unless it was all just performance from beginning to end.

The one constant amid Trump’s 39 “deal” announcements remains Iran.

BRICS News @BRICSinfo

3h

JUST IN:  Iran says it will not surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz in any deal with the United States.

Well, we knew that all along, didn’t we?

What’s the alternative? No “deal” but a sort of slow motion cut and run, leaving Iran in control of the region and able to extract reparations via tolls? Double down on escalation—but that sure looks like a loser.

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

1h

We completely collapsed our own position in the region with this war. If we can pull out and focus on more important issues, in the long term, that’s a win. If not, total disaster.

.

We absolutely lost the war that we started. And, because we lack a Congress or real journalism, neither Trump nor the others who pushed us into this catastrophe will be held accountable.

Now, regarding who blinked and why. Here’s Brandon Weichert’s cynical take—Trump was just using the US military, placing people in harm’s way, for his personal purposes:

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

1h

SpaceX IPO + UFC White House fight are the real reasons Trump is promoting this ceasefire. Once we get through this weekend, he and Bibi will find some way to resume fighting and claim they’re the aggrieved parties in this whole thing.

But what if Will Schryver is right?

Will Schryver @imetatronink

20h

 My interpretation: Iran delivered multiple severely damaging strikes last night against US bases in the region.

Trump’s initial impulse was to escalate even further … but the Pentagon refused because they are afraid.

And therefore Trump had to concoct a new TACO lie.

That leaves Trump between a rock and a hard place. Searching for a way out. Iran really wants a deal: Trump’s total capitulation.