In my article on the Geert Wilders phenomenon, I referenced Eric Kaufmann’s book Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth? to support the idea that the Haredim are the future of Israeli politics. My exposure to the book was this video:
A reader who has read the book provided some interesting data:
The Haredi fertility rate was 6.49 from 1980–82. In 1990–96 it actually rose to 7.61 and has remained there. By 2020 Haredi will double their share of the Israeli population to 17%. Shortly after 2050 they’re projected to be the majority of Israeli Jews, even in the unlikely event that their fertility converges with that of secularists by 2030.
Interestingly, Haredi will also be the majority of British Jews by 2050. According to one scholar whom Kaufmann seems unsure of, Haredim make up 17% British Jews but 75% of births.
According to the Israeli Bureau of Statistics for the Ministry of Education, a third of Jewish schoolchildren will be studying in Haredi classrooms by 2012. That’s compared to a few percent in 1960, 12% in 1992 and 27% in 2007. (Addendum, 12/29/2010: The New York Times reports that “If current trends continue, it said, 78 percent of primary school children in Israel by 2040 will be either ultra-Orthodox or Arab.” Israel returns to its Middle Eastern roots. There is widespread concern about this in Israel because 60% of Heredi men and more than 50% of Heredi women do not work. “Most are dependent on welfare payments like income support, child allowances or married student stipends.” They are also reluctant to join the military, although the military has made allowances for them in recent years.)
To compare with the Haredi statistics cited above, Israeli Arab fertility went from 8.5 in 1950 to 4 by the late 80s. Jews from the Middle East living in Israel went from 6 in 1950 to about 3 in 1980. Secular Jews formerly immigrated to Israel. Now, they’re actually leaving. In 2007 more Jews left Israel than entered.
On Haredi political power
In 2003 Uri Lupolianski became the first Haredi mayor of Jerusalem. In the election, 90% of the Heredim voted compared to 32 percent of other Jews. In 2008 the Haredi candidate Meir Porush lost 52-48, but according to Kaufmann “the eventual Haredi domination of the Jerusalem mayor’s office is as certain as was the ascent of the Irish in the municipal politics of Boston, New York and Chicago.”
In 1984 Haredi parties controlled six seats in the Knesset. In 2009 they had 18, or fifteen percent of the body.
On the increasing number of Haredi in America
From 2000 to 2006 alone Haredim went from 7.2 percent to 9.4 percent of American Jewry. At this rate they will constitute the majority of American Jews by 2050.
So we can end up with a situation where the Haredi Jews are the majority of American, British and Israeli Jews by 2050, the Day of Judgment for Whites!
As I noted in the article on Wilders, one wonders how long the image of Jews as liberal, humane, champions of the downtrodden can continue when such large percentages of Jews are Haredim, not to mention what is going on in Israel.