NYTimes: How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel
I thought that this is a very thorough and balanced article. Basically the Israelis trapped Trump because of Netanyahu’s preemptive strike and the power of the Israel Lobby in the GOP and the media, making it politically non-viable to oppose Israel. He dragged his feet and he would have resisted if Israel ‘s attacks were ineffective. Only if the Israeli attacks were successful would he act. Once they were, Trump got on board. He always goes with a winner, however reluctantly in this case.
Israel sees this as a way to end their problems once and for all. And it may be that Trump is increasingly thinking the same thing.
So get ready for a very big war with the U.S. involved to the hilt.
How Trump Shifted on Iran Under Pressure From Israel
President Trump spent the first months of his term holding back Israel’s push for an assault on Iran’s nuclear program. With the war underway, his posture has gyrated as he weighs sending in the U.S. military.

Mr. Netanyahu had spent more than a decade warning that an overwhelming military assault was necessary before Iran reached the point that it could quickly build a nuclear weapon. Yet he had always backed down after multiple American presidents, fearful of the consequences of another conflagration in the Middle East, told him the United States would not assist in an attack.
But this time, the American intelligence assessment was that Mr. Netanyahu was preparing not just a limited strike on the nuclear facilities, but a far more expansive attack that could imperil the Iranian regime itself — and that he was prepared to go it alone.
The intelligence left President Trump facing difficult choices. He had become invested in a diplomatic push to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions, and had already swatted down one attempt by Mr. Netanyahu, in April, to convince him that the time was right for a military assault on Iran. During a strained phone call in late May, Mr. Trump again warned the Israeli leader against a unilateral attack that would short-circuit the diplomacy.
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But over the last several weeks, it became increasingly apparent to Trump administration officials that they might not be able to stop Mr. Netanyahu this time, according to interviews with key players in the administration’s deliberations over how to respond and others familiar with their thinking. At the same time, Mr. Trump was getting impatient with Iran over the slow pace of negotiations and beginning to conclude that the talks might go nowhere.
Contrary to Israeli claims, senior administration officials were unaware of any new intelligence showing that the Iranians were rushing to build a nuclear bomb — a move that would justify a pre-emptive strike. But seeing they would most likely not be able to deter Mr. Netanyahu and were no longer driving events, Mr. Trump’s advisers weighed alternatives.
At one end of the spectrum was sitting back and doing nothing and then deciding on next steps once it became clear how much Iran had been weakened by the attack. At the other end was joining Israel in the military assault, possibly to the point of forcing regime change in Iran.

Mr. Trump chose a middle course, offering Israel as-yet undisclosed support from the U.S. intelligence community to carry out its attack and then turning up the pressure on Tehran to give immediate concessions at the negotiating table or face continued military onslaught.
Now Mr. Trump is seriously considering sending American aircraft in to help refuel Israeli combat jets and to try to take out Iran’s deep-underground nuclear site at Fordo with 30,000-pound bombs — a step that would mark a stunning turnabout from his opposition just two months ago to any military action while there was still a chance of a diplomatic solution.
The story of what led up to the Israeli strike is one of two leaders in Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu who share a common goal — preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb — but who are wary of each other’s motives. They speak often in public about their strong political and personal bonds, and yet the relationship has long been beset by mistrust.
Interviews with two dozen officials in the United States, Israel and the Persian Gulf region show how Mr. Trump vacillated for months over how and whether to contain Mr. Netanyahu’s impulses as he confronted the first foreign policy crisis of his second term. It was a situation he faced with a relatively inexperienced circle of advisers handpicked for loyalty.
This year he told a political ally that Mr. Netanyahu was trying to drag him into another Middle East war — the type of war he promised during his presidential campaign last year he would keep America out of.
And when Israel chose war, Mr. Trump cycled from skepticism about attaching himself too closely to Mr. Netanyahu to inching toward joining him in dramatically escalating the conflict, even bucking the view that there is no immediate nuclear threat from Iran.
As he rushed back to Washington from a Group of 7 summit in Canada early on Tuesday morning, Mr. Trump took issue with an element of public testimony of Tulsi Gabbard, his director of national intelligence, that the intelligence community did not believe Iran was actively building nuclear weapons even as it enriches uranium that could ultimately be used for a nuclear arsenal. “I don’t care what she said,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “I think they were very close to having them.”
Beyond the lives lost and destruction wrought, the crisis has also laid bare schisms within Mr. Trump’s party between those inclined to reflexively defend Israel, America’s closest ally in the region, and those determined to keep the United States from getting further mired in the Middle East’s cycle of violence.
Asked for comment, a White House spokesman pointed to public comments made by Mr. Trump about not allowing Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.
‘I Think We Might Have to Help Him’
When Mr. Trump met with his top advisers at the wooded presidential retreat of Camp David late on Sunday, June 8, to review the fast-evolving situation, the C.I.A. director, John Ratcliffe, provided a blunt assessment.
It was highly likely, he said, that Israel would soon strike Iran, with or without the United States, according to two people familiar with the briefing, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a confidential discussion.

Mr. Trump’s advisers had been preparing for this moment. In late May, they had seen intelligence that made them concerned that Israel was going to move ahead with a major assault on Iran, regardless of what the president was trying to achieve diplomatically with Tehran.
Based on that intelligence, Vice President JD Vance and Marco Rubio, in his joint role as secretary of state and national security adviser, encouraged an effort to give the president a range of options so he could make quick decisions if necessary about the scope of American involvement.
Mr. Ratcliffe’s intelligence-gathering efforts went into overdrive. And in the two weeks leading up to the Camp David meeting, Mr. Trump’s top advisers met multiple times to get on the same page about what the menu of potential options might be.
The day after the Camp David meeting, Monday, June 9, Mr. Trump got on the phone with Mr. Netanyahu. The Israeli leader was unequivocal: The mission was a go.
Mr. Trump was impressed by the ingenuity of the Israeli military planning. He made no commitments, but after he got off the call, he told advisers, “I think we might have to help him.”
Still, the president was torn over what to do next, and quizzed advisers throughout the week. He had wanted to manage Iran on his own terms, not Mr. Netanyahu’s, and he had professed confidence in his deal-making abilities. But he had come to believe that the Iranians were stringing him along.
Unlike some in the anti-interventionist wing of his party, Mr. Trump was never of the view that America could live with, and contain, an Iran with a nuclear bomb. He shared Mr. Netanyahu’s view that Iran was an existential threat to Israel. Mr. Netanyahu, he told aides, was going to do what was necessary to protect his country.
The Diplomatic Route
Israel had begun preparing in December for an attack on Iran, after the decimation of Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, opening up airspace for a bombing campaign.

Mr. Netanyahu gave Mr. Trump a presentation about Iran in the Oval Office, walking him through images of the country’s various nuclear sites.
Israeli intelligence showed that Iran was making cruder and faster efforts to get to a nuclear weapon, and the weaker the Iranians got, the closer they moved to the bomb. In terms of the enrichment of uranium, Iran was days away from where it needed to be, but there were other components it required to complete the weapon.
The Israelis made an additional argument to Mr. Trump: If you want diplomacy to succeed you have to prepare for a strike, so there is real force behind the negotiations. Privately, they fretted that Mr. Trump would take what they viewed as an inadequate deal with Iran, similar to the 2015 deal negotiated by President Barack Obama, and that he would then declare mission accomplished. Mr. Netanyahu told Mr. Trump that the Iranians would be able to rebuild their air defenses that were destroyed during an Israeli attack in October, adding to the urgency.
After his election in November, Mr. Trump had named a close friend, Steve Witkoff, as his Middle East envoy, and gave him the job of trying to reach a deal with Iran. Mr. Trump, elected on a platform that promised to avoid military entanglements abroad, seemed to relish the idea of coming to a diplomatic resolution.
From the beginning of the administration, the Iranians were putting out feelers from a handful of countries to open a diplomatic path with the new administration. Then Mr. Trump made his own dramatic move: He sent a letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In early March, visitors to the Oval Office or guests on Air Force One were regaled by Mr. Trump about his “beautiful letter” to the ayatollah. One visitor treated to a live rendition recalled the letter’s basic message as: I don’t want war. I don’t want to blow you off the map. I want a deal.
Mr. Trump knew he was wading into dangerous political territory. More than perhaps any other subject, the Israel-Iran issue splits Mr. Trump’s coalition, pitting an anti-interventionist faction, led by media figures like the influential podcast host Tucker Carlson, against anti-Iran conservatives like the radio host Mark Levin.
But inside the administration, despite much hype about disagreements between “Iran hawks” and “doves,” ideological divisions were far less important than they were in Mr. Trump’s first term, when officials like Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson viewed the president as reckless and in need of being restrained from his impulses.
Mr. Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were always deferential to the president’s views, even if Mr. Hegseth, who has a close relationship with Mr. Netanyahu, was more trusting of the Israelis than some of his colleagues.

Mr. Vance warned repeatedly about the prospect of the United States getting entangled in a regime change war, but even those on the team who had historically supported a more muscular stance against Iran backed Mr. Witkoff’s diplomacy. Mr. Trump’s tough-on-Iran national security adviser at the time, Mike Waltz, nonetheless had a close working relationship with the more dovish Mr. Witkoff.
On the intelligence side, Mr. Ratcliffe delivered information without weighing in on one side or the other. And while everyone knew that Ms. Gabbard was as anti-interventionist as they come, she rarely pushed that view on the president.
It called for Iran to ultimately stop all enrichment of uranium and proposed the creation of a regional consortium to produce nuclear power that would potentially involve Iran, the United States and other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Keeping Military Options
Even as Mr. Trump pursued a diplomatic solution, he seemed persuaded by one thing the Israelis had said to him: having credible military options would give him a stronger hand in negotiations with Iran.
Options for taking out Iran’s nuclear sites already existed inside the Pentagon, but after taking office in January the president authorized U.S. Central Command to coordinate with the Israelis on further refining and developing them.
By the middle of February, in coordination with the Israelis, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of Central Command, had developed three main options. The first and most minimal was U.S. refueling and intelligence support for an Israeli mission. The second was Israeli and American joint strikes. The third was a U.S.-led mission with Israel in a supporting role. It would have involved American B-1 and B-2 bombers, carrier aircraft and cruise missiles launched from submarines.

But as Mr. Witkoff pursued negotiations with Tehran, mediated by Oman, the Israelis grew impatient.
Mr. Netanyahu made a quick visit to Mr. Trump at the White House in April. Among other requests, he asked for the American bunker-buster bomb to destroy the underground nuclear site at Fordo.
Mr. Trump, intent at the time on giving diplomacy a chance, was unpersuaded and in the days after the meeting, his team made a full-court press to stop the Israelis from launching pre-emptive strikes against Iran. The message from Mr. Trump’s team was blunt: You cannot just go and do this on your own. There are too many implications for us. These were tense conversations, but Mr. Trump’s advisers thought the Israelis had absorbed their message.
The president was concerned that Israel would strike out on its own or scuttle his diplomacy if Mr. Netanyahu did not like where his deal was heading. The Trump team also worried about what would happen if Israel launched strikes against Iran but failed to destroy all of its nuclear facilities.
Patience With Diplomacy Wears Thin
By that point, Mr. Vance was telling associates that he was worried about a potential regime change war, which he considered a dangerous escalation that could spiral out of control.
Mr. Vance had come to view a conflict between Israel and Iran as inevitable. The vice president was open to the possibility of supporting a targeted Israeli strike, but his concerns that it would grow into a more drawn-out war increased as the likely date of a strike approached, according to two people with knowledge of his thinking.
He turned his attention toward trying to keep America out of the conflict as much as possible beyond intelligence sharing. He worked closely with Mr. Trump’s inner circle, including Mr. Rubio, Mr. Hegseth and Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, to figure out contingency plans to protect American personnel in the region.

That same day, Mr. Levin, the conservative radio host, met with Mr. Trump and several of his advisers in the dining room adjoining the Oval Office. He had been an influential force in presenting an anti-Iran view to the president. The conversation with Mr. Levin appeared to have made an impression on the president, advisers said.
After that meeting, Mr. Trump told aides he wanted to give the deal talks a bit more of a chance. But his patience was wearing thin.
That Friday, his team scheduled a Sunday meeting in the privacy of Camp David.
A Rapid Change in Posture
Publicly, Mr. Trump was still stressing the importance of giving diplomacy a chance. And while doing so was not intended to deceive the Iranians about the immediacy of a potential attack from Israel, the possibility that it might keep Iran from going on heightened alert was a welcome side effect, a U.S. official involved in the discussions said.
But last Wednesday, there was no indication of any negotiated breakthrough, and by that point Mr. Trump’s inner circle knew the attack would start the next day.
In some private conversations, Mr. Trump questioned the wisdom of the Israeli decision to attack. “I don’t know about Bibi,” he told one associate, adding that he had warned him against the strikes.
Mr. Trump joined his national security team in the White House Situation Room on Thursday evening as the first wave of strikes was unfolding, and was still keeping his options open. Earlier that day he was telling advisers and allies that he still wanted to get a deal with Iran.
The first official statement from the administration after the strikes came not from Mr. Trump but from Mr. Rubio, who distanced the United States from the Israeli campaign and made no mention of standing by an ally, even though the U.S. intelligence community was already providing support.
But as the night wore on and the Israelis landed a spectacular series of precision strikes against Iranian military leaders and strategic sites, Mr. Trump began to change his mind about his public posture.

When he woke on Friday morning, his favorite TV channel, Fox News, was broadcasting wall-to-wall imagery of what it was portraying as Israel’s military genius. And Mr. Trump could not resist claiming some credit for himself.
In phone calls with reporters, Mr. Trump began hinting that he had played a bigger behind-the-scenes role in the war than people realized. Privately, he told some confidants that he was now leaning toward a more serious escalation: going along with Israel’s earlier request that the United States deliver powerful bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordo.
As recently as Monday, Mr. Trump held out the possibility that Mr. Witkoff or even Mr. Vance could meet with Iranian officials to seek a negotiated deal. But as Mr. Trump abruptly left the Group of 7 summit in Canada to rush back to Washington, there was little indication that the conflict would be brought to a quick end through diplomacy.
I don’t think Trump is an innocent person who was not following a script. If he is innocent, why did he run again, knowing that the same forces would stand in his way like during his first term, assuming that Trump was not just following script? All Trump supporters made excuses for him during his first term, but these same “forces” didn’t “magically” disappear, so why did Trump bother to run again since the same thing would happen again? It would be a 100% waste of time for him, unless he had ulterior motives.
Unz.c*m/article/chinas-fertility-catastrophe/
I would look at the issue from the point of evolutionary psychology. In Africa, population is growing – they have a very R-Selected reproductive strategy – sex is done just for fun, and the side effects is pregnancy, and the females and males are too lazy and poor to bother with contraception and abortion. But K-Selected races are smarter and more hard-working and so don’t have careless pregnancies, like Europeans, East Asians, and Israelites. For them, they need religion, a deity to order them to have children or face divine punishment. The only race that has such a religion are Orthodox Israelites, which is why they have such high fertility. But, also the Amish, Menonites, Hutterites, and to a lesser degree the Mormons who are at least breaking even. But, China is an extreme atheist nation, and the government officially endorses atheism as the national religion. Why should any female bother with children? It takes time away from their career and the time they can use engaging in secular recreational activities. Same thing with men. And, what man would want to raise a child, which is what he would have to do since females in China are allowed to work instead of being traditional house-wives, such as with the Orthodox Jewish, Amish, Hutterites, Menonites, and Mormons? These are the same reasons that many other K-Selected population groups are shrinking, such as Japanese, Koreans, and secular Europeans. I myself don’t have children because I’m Agnostic – why have a child who will just suffer in this Cultural Marxist world and then die for all eternity anyway? So, there is no absolute value in reproducing, unless G-d orders you to do so.
Thus, there is no solution for China. It’s built into the laws of physics governing biology that once a population group becomes K-Selected, intelligent, and atheist/secular, they will stop reproducing and go extinct. This may be one of the reasons why we don’t see any advanced life on other planets as well. Why no visitors? Well, maybe because once they become smart enough to actually engage in interstellar space travel, they stop reproducing and go extinct.
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I would argue that for China to maintain its world status, the loss in production output brought on by a drop in population to 700 million should be counteracted by increasing the production output of each citizen via eugenics – making each citizen more intelligent, Industrious, and inwardly Altruistic. Of course, this is just theory – if Chinese won’t even reproduce, then surely they won’t bother with eugenics.
I didn’t realize secular Israelis have achieved replacement level birthrates. I don’t understand why any atheist would want to reproduce, since they would understand that life, from an atheistic point of view, is pointless – we all die forever, and our children, and grandchildren, all lost forever. Atheists are supposed to just enjoy themselves to the fullest, live for the moment, since this will be their only chance in time to do so, before they vanish into oblivion. So, what motivates secular Israelis to reproduce? Maybe by secular, you don’t mean outright Atheists, but liberal Judaism where they still believe in an After-Life? Or are the secular Israelis reproducing just for selfish reasons, such as getting tax breaks for having children, or to be sure they have offspring who can take care of them when they get sick or old? Or maybe they just reproduce to have human-like pets to entertain them, like atheists owning dogs. I just don’t understand why any Jewish atheist would choose to reproduce for Altruistic reasons, e.g. for the advancement of the race, since they know every member of their race dies anyway.
Peter Frost responds to my post at Unz.c*m/article/chinas-fertility-catastrophe/
Israel has raised its fertility rate through a mix of nationalism, financial incentives, and pro-natalist messaging. The rise in fertility has actually been strongest among non-religious people.
This is a point that most non-Israelis don’t realize. The rise in Israel’s fertility has not been driven by religious Jews. It has been driven by secular, educated Jews — the very people who are not having kids elsewhere:
“Over the last 15 years, fertility in Israel has increased by 0.2 children, even as Haredi and Arab fertility has fallen, and even as the mean age at first birth has increased by at least 2 years in Israel’s Jewish, Christian, and Druze populations. … The difference in overall fertility levels between Israel and other developed countries is disproportionately driven by higher Israeli fertility at later ages — 30s into early 40s — and higher fertility among more educated Israelis.”
“Specifically, the large differences in fertility between Israeli women and those in other developed countries are smallest among the least educated, and largest among the most educated. This means that most of the difference in fertility between Israel and European countries originates in relatively educated families — a high and increasing percentage of families in Israel — having more children.”
https://www.taubcenter.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/exceptionalfertilityeng.pdf
“So get ready for a very big war with the U.S. involved to the hilt.”
Tragic concluding remark by Prof. MacDonald.
“UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” – Various online headlines over the past 24 hours citing Trump’s constructive admission that we ARE “at war” with Iran.
Per many non-MSM (“main stream media”) sites, Israel’s “Pearl Harbor” attack on Iran and the subsequent war it has started is failing miserably. Actually, it is more properly-characterized as “Israel’s U.S. enabler’s perfidious attack”.
A morning CNBC headline article reports a defiant Iran’s response. Scott Ritter is correct. Trump is weak. He’s a coward. He is betraying his “America First” supporters and every important campaign promise that he was elected on.
If so-called “Armageddon” occurs as a consequence of the “Christian Zionist” element of Trump’s MAGA base, it will NOT be because of some biblical fairy tales, but because of man-made insanity.
Thank you.
I know this is getting off-topic now, but just in case Occidental Observer is interested in the rest of the data, I just have this last post:
Eugene Kusmiak says:
I skimmed the article at the link you provided and I’m not sure your conclusion is correct. The article refers to two fertility statistics (among others):
1. Israel’s TFR in 2015 (the last year of data in this report) was 3.1 children per woman. This is largely due to religious, not secular, Jews.
2. Israel’s TFR increased by 0.2 (from 2.9 to 3.1) children per woman between 2000 and 2015. This increase is largely due to secular, not religious, Jews.
Here is the chart on page 14 of the report, showing Haredi Jews having 7 children families and secular Jews having 2 children families:
https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.VPLVYxqIBPIRzRmx2Z_-swHaE0
(I’m not sure why the graph is not appearing as a picture in my comment. You should be able to click the link to see it.)
As you can see on the graph, Haredi family size decreased from 7.5 to 7 children, while secular families increased from 1.9 to 2.1, in recent years. That appears to be all they are claiming when they say that the “increase in the overall level of fertility in Israel is largely driven by rising fertility rates among the majority non-religious and traditional Jewish population.” That is, the small increase of 0.2 is driven by non-religious Jews. But the high level of 3.1 is driven by religious Jews.
And when they say that educated Israelis have more children than educated Europeans, that again seems to be because educated religious Israelis, not educated secular Israelis, have large families.
So, it’s basically the religious Jews having the children.
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Peter Frost responds:
Even if we look only at secular college-educated Israelis, we see fertility rates that are considerably higher than those of Europeans in general.
“… even when the sample is limited to non-Haredim and non-Arab Israelis, high school and college educated men in their early 40s in Israel have, respectively, 0.6 and 0.8 children more than their European peers.” (p. 26)
“… even among Jewish women who self-identify as secular and traditional but not religious, the combined TFR always exceeds 2.2, making it higher than the TFR in all other OECD countries (which also include religious subpopulations, many of which have higher fertility).” (p. 13)
I’m interested in where current trends are going. Religious Jews have always had large families, but their fertility has been declining while the fertility of secular Jews has been rising. https://www.taubcenter.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/exceptionalfertilityeng.pdf
This jewyorktimes blather is just camouflage for Trumpstein And company to claim plausibility. the devil made me do it.
Trump , the jewyorktimes, Fox News, etc. are all war criminals. IF their lips are moving they are lying.
Trumpstein’s historic role is to destroy the GOP as well as the jews in American public opinion. Yahweh speed.
White nationalists are literally more upset about some shitty sand people regime getting bombed than they are about the hundreds of thousands of white people killed as a result of Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine.
Hasbara much?
White people need a eugenic policy to sustain our civilization