Mark Wauck: Day 4 Op Epstein Fury: Early Update

First we have an update on the destruction of some of Iran’s naval assets. While Trump was crowing about destroying some Iranian ships that were left at the docks, I speculated that these were vessels that were deemed expendable or indefensible in the circumstances—crews would not be put to risk. It appears that was the case:

Patricia Marins @pati_marins64

From the 8 ships sunk and visually confirmed- , 3 were from 60s and without any relevance, 3 unarmed an 2 more modern frigates. Where are the others 25-30 Iranian ships and 28-30 submarines?

Shahryar Pasandideh @shahpas

A waste of a munition against an essentially unarmed ship (the Makran and Kordestan should not be confused with the Shahid Mahdavi) and an unnecessary pollution hazard. The waters of the Persian Gulf, which Iran shares with the Gulf Arab states, are slow to circulate and flush.

Joseph Dempsey @JosephHDempsey

20h

INS Makran, a former oil tanker converted into an Expeditionary Mobile Base (ESB), indicated damaged in strikes at Bandar Abbas naval base, Iran.

I can’t vouch for Marins’ numbers—Wikipedia lists Iran as having 20 submarine. Of these, three are Russian Kilo class subs, which are very dangerous attack subs—extremely quiet, well armed. Their presence in the area should be very concerning to the USN and they are probably the most significant asset the Iranian navy possesses for this type of war. Most of the rest are mini-subs. These are most likely designed for coastal operation, so useful for keeping the USN at a distance—little is known about their range, but they carry two torpedoes. Beyond the submarines the Iranian navy operates numerous fast patrol ships—some can reach 100 mph—which are armed with anti-ship missiles. These present a very real asymmetric threat.

More generally, Marins notes this morning:

An operation planned entirely for a 5-day war

As we’ve been discussing over the past few days, the shortage of interceptors is already critical and is directly affecting the United States, Israel, and their allies, who are now openly accusing the U.S. of turning its back on them and prioritizing Israel’s protection instead.

Not to mention the failure to evacuate the bases, with soldiers reportedly hiding in hotels in the face of such obvious bombardment in a conflict of this scale. …

In the best-case scenario, there will only be enough ammunition left for another 4 days if Iran returns to its initial pace of attacks.

But that’s not even the main concern. In the configuration most oriented toward anti-missile defense, which is almost certainly the loadout of the two Carrier Strike Groups currently stationed in the region, the number of Tomahawks should range between 300 and 500 missiles.

Since hundreds have already been expended in the last 3 days, it’s quite possible that no more than 100–150 remain or even less.

That’s the point I made before the war started. That the interchangeable launch silos (able to accommodate both anti-missile and Tomahawks) would be heavily skewed toward defense rather than toward the offensive Tomahawks.

So, in addition to the interceptor shortage, the Tomahawk inventory is also dropping fast, and they can only be reloaded in port. Although the Navy is working on at-sea reload capability, it is still not operational.

Everything was planned for a lightning war that never materialized.

Now, in the big picture, this is very big.

Collingwood @admcollingwood

3h

Maybe because, given the midterms are coming, the traders at Henry Hub know that Donald Trump could easily impose export controls.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

5h

European natural gas prices are absolutely soaring. Henry Hub in the US is pretty muted. Weird considering LNG demand from the US is going to increase significantly.

So, the Euros cut themselves off from cheap Russian energy to import expensive US gas. Who wants to bet that Trump would inflict pain on American consumers in the event of major shortages just to accommodate allies? Me neither. And it gets worse.

Iran has struck Fujairah, which is the only Gulf energy hub that lies outside the actual Persian Gulf, beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The only bypass of the Strait. Energy analysts didn’t count on this and assumed that energy would continue flowing from Fujairah. Fujairah is also an important support and resupply facility for the USN Fifth Fleet.



Shanaka Anslem Perera @shanaka86

BREAKING: Fujairah is not just a port. It is the terminus of the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, the UAE’s only bypass around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran just struck the escape route.

Every analyst modelling the Hormuz closure built their base case on 4.0 to 6.5 million barrels per day of bypass capacity through pipelines terminating outside the Strait. Fujairah was the linchpin of that assumption. Saudi Aramco’s East-West Petroline to Jeddah was the other.

On March 1, Iranian missiles hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s primary export terminal. On March 3, Iranian drones reached Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. Debris from an intercepted drone ignited a fire at the facility. Contained quickly, no casualties, operations resumed.

But the message to reinsurers is not about this fire. It is about the next one.

The bypass capacity that every energy desk on Wall Street uses to argue Hormuz disruption is manageable just became a target set, not a solution. Reinsurers now must model not only Hormuz transit risk but bypass terminal risk. The insurance withdrawal that shut down 80% of Hormuz transits can now extend to the infrastructure the market assumed would compensate.

$79 Brent assumes the bypass works. Iran just demonstrated that the bypass is within range.

Recalculate everything.

Rethink that lightning 5 day war.

@calvinfroedge

22h

Friday: weekend war, we’ll kill Khamenei and the people will rise up

Saturday: 4 day war, people need some encouragement, we have people in mind

Sunday: 4 week war, our people are dead, not sure what comes next, maybe civil war

Monday: Boots on the ground

What’s next? Trump is likely on the phone to Tel Aviv seeking instructions.

Will Schryver @imetatronink

11h

 Running Dry

Less than 72 hours into this exercise in madness, US stockpiles of air defense interceptors are manifestly running dry.

That is to be expected when you expend 10+ to intercept just 1 or 2 incoming missiles.

This debacle continues to progress from bad to worse.