Trump Looking To TACO Finally?

Up till the last moment Trump tried to use threats to get Iran to return to fake negotiations in Islamabad—fake, because there was a total lack of seriousness on the Anglo-Zionist side. It was just cover while Trump tried to figure out some sort of off ramp. Unfortunately for Trump, Iran was fed up with his act and refused to participate. So, late this afternoon, desperate, Trump announced a unilateral and indefinite ceasefire:

Let me offer a H/T to John Mearsheimer. I’m listening to him and Chris Hedges as I type [highly recommended]. Mearsheimer, speaking before Trump’s semi-fictional announcement—the claim of Iranian division is nonsense—stressed Trump’s desperate position and speculated that, in lieu of an insane escalation—insane in its impact on the world economy, which we discussed earlier—Trump might simply extend the ceasefire. Think about that in the context of what most are calling a massive buildup of US forces in the region. At this point, that looks like one very expensive bluff—with no regard for military personnel. Unless it’s all a prelude to another sneak attack.

Now, what’s the point of an indefinite ceasefire? Obviously, I can only speculate. However, it occurs to me that Trump may actually be hoping that the ceasefire can hold up to May 2—barely more than a week off—when Congress is likely to refuse War Powers against Iran. That’s a rough and ready off ramp for Trump. He can try to shift blame to Congress. Of course, a blockade is an act of war. Presumably Trump will comply with a Congressional refusal and stop the blockade. The big question will be whether Israel will attack Iran unilaterally. That seems doubtful, if Trump is serious, for the simple reason that Israeli attacks are almost totally dependent on US intel and refueling support.

If I understand this correctly, Iran doesn’t appear to be buying into this. Trump has declared a ceasefire, but Iran is stating that it sees no point in talking to the US side.

DD Geopolitics @DD_Geopolitics

1h

 BREAKING! Iran Pulls Out of Wednesday Islamabad Talks — Tasnim News

Iran has formally notified the United States through Pakistani mediators that it will not attend Wednesday’s scheduled negotiations in Islamabad, with no timeline set for future rounds, according to Tasnim News Agency.

The decision follows what Tehran describes as a pattern of American bad faith since the ceasefire framework was agreed upon.

According to Tasnim’s sources, Iran accepted a ceasefire and subsequent negotiations based on a 10-point framework it submitted — which Washington formally accepted through Pakistani intermediaries.

However, the U.S. almost immediately began walking back its commitments.

First, Washington failed to pressure Israel into implementing the Lebanon ceasefire as agreed — stalling talks for several days. Then, during the first Islamabad round, the U.S. introduced demands that far exceeded the original framework, effectively torpedoing the negotiations. Tehran’s assessment: having failed on the battlefield, Washington was trying to compensate through maximalist demands at the table.

Iran subsequently issued a firm warning of missile strikes on Israel, which Tasnim says forced the U.S. to finally operationalize the Lebanon ceasefire. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi then announced Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping in line with the initial framework — only for the U.S. to continue its naval blockade regardless.

Recent message exchanges produced no meaningful progress, with Washington refusing to retreat from demands Tehran considers violations of Iran’s sovereign rights.

Iran has now concluded that returning to talks under these conditions would be a waste of time, as the U.S. is blocking any viable agreement. The decision has been communicated to Washington via Islamabad.

Reading between those lines, we conclude: Trump does realize that Iran is in the driver’s seat, but cannot do the deal he desperately needs because he’s desperately afraid of Jewish Nationalists. As well as the damage to his ego. Well, that damage will come.

In the meantime, all the questions remain. Will Trump use that force buildup to reoccupy regional bases and, if he does, how will Iran react? Since Trump claims to be maintaining the blockade—which, by all accounts, is quite porous—again, how will Iran react? How will the rest of the Gulf region react and how will the rest of the world react—not least, China and Russia? Will Iran pull the trigger on another Red Sea blockade, to shut off all Saudi oil flow? Did I mention sanctions? Yeah, sanctions. Again, Iran is in the driver’s sea. Trump needs a deal badly to avoid catastrophe, but his ego so far won’t allow him to do the only available deal—the one that Iran dictates.

And then there’s the domestic political consequences. It seems to me that Trump is in deep doo-doo and is moving into even deeper doo-doo. This looks to be all about damage control, and that op isn’t off to a good start.