Mark Wauck: Spike In Renewed Iran War Rumors

The American Conservative @amconmag

President Trump says the Hormuz blockade “is genius”:

“The blockade has been 100% foolproof. It shows how good our Navy is. No one is going to play games.. Now, they have to cry uncle. That’s all they have to do. Just say ‘We give up.’”

Is all this more bluffing to try to extract some concession from Iran, some fig leaf to cover the TACO and sell it to Americans as a victory? Whatever it is—bluff or real threat—Iran isn’t playing that game. The bottom line for me is that, one way or another, the war on Iran that threatens global economic catastrophe as well as a possible hot global war targeting China is being prolonged. It’s hard to exaggerate the negatives of continuing this war.

Here’s what’s up this morning.

Say what you want about Axios, but it has been used by Trump to feed leaks to the media—bluff, or signaling a real threat:

Drop Site @DropSiteNews

AXIOS: President Trump to receive new Iran strike options briefing Thursday

CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is set to present plans ranging from a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iranian infrastructure to seizing parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen shipping, according to the report.

Other options include special forces targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

Trump told Axios he views the naval blockade as “more effective than the bombing,” but could escalate if Iran refuses to concede.

United States Air Force general, who serves as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine is also expected at the briefing.

Oil prices have surged to new war-time highs

Now, this morning, Larry Johnson appeared on Judge Nap’s show. LJ presented all the very strong arguments against a renewal of the bombing campaign. The leading—and related—reasons included two that we highlighted yesterday:

• Iran controls escalation because of its enormous stock of high precision missiles, which have wreaked devastation on US bases;
• The US is running short of precision munitions, most of which rely on Chinese provided rare earths and—in any event—take months to produce for each unit.

In other words, Iran can happily fire away while the US has to husband its resources—which have, in any case, not deterred Iran in the least. LJ also explains the likely disasters awaiting any entry into Iranian territory—a lesson Trump should have learned from the Isfahan debacle. Still …

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

20h

An MC-130J Commando II and 2 x HC-130J Combat King II are arriving in US Bases in the region.

*same planes that were used for that failed raid near Isfahan.

Perhaps most tellingly, LJ reports that he has heard that the top officers who would be most involved in such a renewed bombing and/or boots on the ground campaign are opposed. Trump’s claims and threats that Iran is desperate for an end fall flat in the face of continued Iranian defiance and the implausibility of any suggestion on his own part that he’s reluctant to attack for supposed humanitarian reasons. Nevertheless, Doug Macgregor, who has consistently predicted escalation and hasn’t been wrong yet, is predicting stupid choices and escalation …

Iran, for its part, has been threatening massive retaliation—eclipsing previous responses—and strongly suggesting that it will target USN ships. That, of course, raises the question of whether Iran has, to this point, held back some of its anti-ship capabilities.

IRNA News Agency ☫ @IrnaEnglish

In response to CENTCOM, IRGC Aerospace Force commander said:

With long and far-reaching painful blows, we will respond to the enemy’s operations even if they are swift and short by the grace of God.

We saw the fate of your bases in the region; we will also see your warships.

Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape

2h

Chilling: Iran supreme leader issues statement saying:

— only place Americans belong in Persian Gulf is ‘at the bottom of its waters

— Iran will protect nuclear capability

—Iran will keep Hormuz

Iran is not surrendering— it’s preparing for escalation

Will Schryver sums the situation up:

Will Schryver @imetatronink

15h

Trump has painted himself into a “damned if you do and damned if you don’t” corner.

Declare victory and leave? Everyone knows the score.

Try to redeem the fail with new attacks? Run serious risk of losing even bigger, and still have to leave because you’ve got nothing left.

Continues…