So, yesterday we saw Trump proclaiming that Iran was asking—’begging’, we were supposed to believe—for a meeting. Of course, if that had been true, which it wasn’t, why would Iran have canceled the scheduled meeting in Switzerland in the first place? The truth of the matter, of course, was that the US asked for a meeting.

The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport

2h

BREAKING: Qatar’s Foreign Ministry just openly contradicted Trump’s claim of a scheduled Doha meeting with Iran — confirming that while U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner will arrive in Qatar to meet with mediators, no high-level meeting between American and Iranian officials is planned, per Al Jazeera.

Trump had posted earlier on Truth Social: “IRAN HAS REQUESTED A MEETING. IT WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW IN DOHA!”

Trump’s market manipulation trick!!

The Iranian response was that there would be no meetings until the US complied with the MOU, and the supposed “meeting” in Doha turned out to simply be the US people meeting with third parties. Apparently the US side was handed a written demand from Iran requiring that the US comply with the commitments contained in the MOU. The implication seems to be that, without that compliance, the MOU’s 60 day ceasefire may run without further negotiations. Trump made promises, in writing, and Iran won’t accept any switcheroo.

Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

 Iran just handed the U.S. a wish list before it’ll even show up to talk again.

Top of it is the Strait of Hormuz. Full control, no exceptions.

Next is billions in frozen funds. Iran wants them back, usable, with no strings attached.

Then there’s Lebanon. Not a decrease in Israeli attacks, but a verified end to them.

And the nuclear program stays off the table entirely, according to Tehran’s hardliners.

Trump claimed that talks resume today in Doha. Iran’s deputy FM says no negotiation is planned, just talks with Qatari officials.

Nearly 3/4 of Iran’s powerful clerical body just signed off on red lines for their negotiators.

No nuclear talks. No Hormuz concessions. No sanctions relief without ironclad guarantees first.

It’s a high-stakes geopolitical standoff. And Iran isn’t showing any signs of backing down.

Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Michael

Here’s Prof Pape:

Hormuz traffic clearly going the wrong way for the world’s economy

Iran survived and that changed everything

And puts Iran in the driver’s seat

Diplomacy fails, oil inventory clock ticks, and the trap snaps

No surprise: US/Iran talks fail to launch in Doha. Meanwhile,

Speaker Johnson floats a new 60-day congressional leash for more war

With ceasefire collapsing, the region is caught in a deepening escalation trap

Pape maintains that war will start up again, in an escalated mode. I question whether he’s taking into account the full extent of the pressure Trump is under from multiple directions and multiple players—Iran, yes, but also Russia and China, in addition to the looming economic crisis. I also question whether the US military is in condition to resume war. We’ll find out soon enough.

Patarames @Pataramesh

5h

Iran countered that option [the Israeli claim that they’re ready to resume war on Iran] by patiently depleting missile-defense interceptors, conveniently launching it’s legacy Ghadr missiles etc.

Unsatisfying for Pro-Iran folks to not see scenes like in Operation True Promise 2

 But it created a massive military/political leverage

Meanwhile, Trump is trying to jawbone the price of gas at the pump in a downward direction, while also urging Americans to pile into the stock market to keep the bubble inflated. And Bessent, clearly protesting too much, assures the world that Dollar Dominance will never end.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

21h

“Strait is Open” op is now dead — except on Bloomberg or whatever. Reports suggest Iranian leadership say technical talks aren’t even on this week. Gasoline prices are rallying but to the extent prices have been held down, they’ll only empty inventories quicker over the summer.

Expect reserves — both commercial and strategic — to drain pretty rapidly at these fake prices.

Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo

 Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to the same level as it was during the wartime period

The MoU signed in Switzerland raised it from approximately 5-10 vessels a day to 15-20

Before the war, around 150-200 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

8h

Bloomberg is trying to convince me this morning that Oman control half the Strait of Hormuz. Note to the editor: the internet exists.

Oman is simply straddling the fence. Iran controls the strait, just as it says in the MOU.

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

8h

Oil futures probably have an impact on prices at the margin and in the very short-term, but to a very large extent prices are dictated by supply and demand. The only thing Trump can do to stop “gouging” is price caps which will rapidly create shortages.

zerohedge @zerohedge

14h

Trump raging against crack spreads. Refiners may be shorted here

It’s never a good look when a POTUS just openly lies to people, who know better. And Americans, by and large, do know better. The poll numbers aren’t lying.

Brandon Weichert @WeTheBrandon

57m

Is this what he meant by the specter of communism being upon us again? Lol. We truly live in a post-Truth society. Ironic, that such post-truths are being posted on “Truth” Social. He should’ve named the company “My Truth Social.”

Philip Pilkington @philippilk

5h

If this is just aimed at suppressing oil futures prices while crack spreads blow out and Trump tries to talk down retail price on Truth Social in a desperate gambit to firm up support for the GOP in November this is one of the most bizarre series of happenings I’ve ever seen.

MenchOsint @MenchOsint

One Oil Tanker visible in the US corridor this morning.

Heavy Air cover is active 24/7. A very costly operation.

Pathetic, but also unsustainable.

gato fumante @KweenInYellow

13h

Routine destruction of Palestinian roads and water infrastructure in the Occupied West Bank, featuring the armored D9 Caterpiller produced in East Peoria, Illinois and provided free of charge using our taxpayer dollars.

One last reminder, because Russia—and not just China—is very much engaged in this Anglo-Zionist war on Iran. Talking to Judge Nap this morning, Prof Mearsheimer makes the point that, while Putin may have been fooled into believing that Trump sincerely wanted to work toward a realistic peace. Mearsheimer, speaking of Putin’s recent statements, argues that Putin may be about to take the gloves off in new ways. But, from my standpoint, and just as importantly, what is happening with the open NATO war on Russia has probably convinced the Chinese that Putin was right all along—that he had no option except to launch his Special Military Option. The Chinese don’t like war, but what they’re seeing from Trump may be opening their eyes to the necessity of preparing for war. I’ll admit that I’m astonished that Putin should have been this naive, but Mearsheimer makes a strong argument:

Prof: And when people talk about the spirit of Anchorage, and again, we’re putting aside whether there were any concrete agreements, the “spirit of Anchorage” was all about the fact that Trump wanted to improve relations with Putin. And what happened at Anchorage was seen as a major step in that direction. And I think all the evidence is that Putin bought into this and Putin was willing to work with Trump up until recently to try and work out some sort of deal that would put an end to the war in Ukraine. I think what’s happening now is that the Russians understand that Trump is no friend, that Trump is an adversary, and that Trump is basically joined at the hip with the Europeans and with the Ukrainians, and those three are doing everything they can to bring Russia down as a great power. So, I think the Russians are mad as hornets now. And this is why I say if you have a situation where we accelerate these drone attacks on Russia you are playing with fire.

Judge: Yes. I mean you could add to your list there that Trump is waging war. Trump is a co-belligerant against Russia with the military arms we’re supplying and the intelligence that we are providing for aiming them.

Prof: Absolutely. I mean, this talk that the United States is a mediator is nonsense.

I also liked Mearsheimer’s response to Jake Sullivan’s suggestion that maybe Trump didn’t understand the MOU that he signed. Mearsheimer is basically arguing that what we see going on with Trump’s current gamesmanship is not some sort of masterful multi-dimensional chess before a new blitzkrieg—it’s a worm squirming to try to get off the hook. The war is over and we lost, that’s what Mearsheimer is saying. Trump can’t change that fact because the Iranians are fully aware of it.

I actually think this is all nonsense. I think that basically [Sullivan is] arguing that we were fleeced, that it was inexperience that produced this document, this surrender document. It wasn’t the fact that we were fleeced. [The MOU] reflected the balance of coercive power. Look, those documents that were floated around before we reached an agreement on the final memorandum of understanding on June 17th and the final is almost the same as the initial that [Iran] proposed. But you know, we proposed a counter document, right? There were a number of documents floating around. There were endless negotiations on these documents. I find it hard to believe that we didn’t look over every word. And the reason that we had to swallow all of these provisions that were to Iran’s advantage and our disadvantage was because the balance of coercive power decisively favored the Iranians.

Trump is a loser, the worm on the hook, and he’s trying to gaslight us.