From Mark Wauck’s “Is This Trump’s Latest Plan B?”

March 31, 2026/13 Comments/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

Excerpt from Mark Wauck’s “Is This Trump’s Latest Plan B?“:

As John Mearsheimer pointed out to Judge Nap this morning, Trump continues to move military assets into the region—he continues to escalate. Mearsheimer suggests two theories to account for the mess: First, Trump is a Mad King, and second, Trump now understands he’s in a no win situation and is simply “flailing” around, desperately seeking a way out—and almost all of those schemes involve escalation. Here are some brief excerpts from the Mearsheimer interview:

Trump: We’re having very good meetings both, directly and indirectly, and I think we’re getting a lot of very important points.

I.e., Trump says Iran is giving in all demands so Trump says he’ll make more demands.

Judge: In fact, these meetings don’t exist. I know. I don’t know what to say. What do you say about this?

Prof: [Laughing] The whole thing is just–it’s preposterous. The level of incoherence here is just off the charts. This is the president of the United States, the president of the most powerful country in the world. You can only wonder what other leaders around the world, other people around the world are thinking as they watch this. And it’s just hard to believe that this man is in charge of the United States.

Just as LBJ escalated in Vietnam without a winning strategy …

Trump is going up the escalation ladder. I can’t help thinking about Vietnam and how that war played itself out.

And this is the situation that Trump is in. He’s involved and he can’t walk away.

In part because of the Israelis, but even if the Israelis weren’t involved, this is the United States of America. It doesn’t walk away from a fight. That mentality is hardwired into us. So what he’s doing is he’s escalating as we read the newspapers today. What you see is that the administration is moving ground forces into the Middle East.

There’s no military solution here.

And behind closed doors there is wildeyed pessimism about where we’re headed.

And yet, the WSJ article—which Mearsheimer has read—directly states that Trump is planning to TACO, leaving Hormuz under Iranian control, and then to turn to “diplomacy.” While shifting more military assets to the region. While, according to reports, France, Spain, and Italy are now all refusing their air space to those shifts of US military assets.

In fact, of course, the world isn’t so simple as that, and US energy costs are also heading steadily upward.

Jewish ethics on display: Israel approves death penalty – but only for Palestinians

March 31, 2026/4 Comments/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

Israel approves death penalty – but only for Palestinians

Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — Israel’s far-rightnational security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir – Reuters

Israel has approved the death penalty for Palestinians but not for Israelis who commit the same crime.

The controversial bill, which was passed on Monday, makes execution a default sentence for Palestinians convicted in military courts of deadly terror attacks.

Sixty-two lawmakers, including prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, voted in favour, with 48 against the controversial bill which has been condemned by Britain.

There was one abstention and the rest of the lawmakers were not present.

Britain, France, Germany and Italy expressed “deep concern” over the bill on Sunday, which they said risked “undermining Israel’s commitments with regards to democratic principles”.

In the run-up to the vote, hard-Right national security minister Itamar Ben Gvir had worn a lapel pin in the shape of a noose, symbolising his support for the legislation.

“We made history!!! We promised. We delivered,” he posted on X after the vote.

The bill will make the death penalty the default punishment for Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank found guilty of intentionally carrying out deadly attacks deemed “acts of terrorism” by an Israeli military court.

It says that the sentence may be reduced to life imprisonment under “special circumstances”.

A &ZeroWidthSpace;group of UN experts said that the bill &NoBreak;included vague definitions of “terrorist”, meaning the death penalty could be meted out over “conduct that is not genuinely terrorist” in nature.

Palestinians in the West Bank are automatically tried in Israeli military courts.

The bill sets the execution method as hanging, adding that it should be carried out within 90 days of the sentencing, with a possible postponement of up to 180 days.

Call for law to be annulled

The bill appears to conflict with Israel’s Basic Laws, which prohibit arbitrary discrimination.

Shortly after it was passed, a leading human rights group announced that it had filed a petition with the Supreme Court demanding the legislation’s annulment.

“The law creates two parallel tracks, both designed to apply to Palestinians,” the Association for Civil Rights in Israel said in a statement.

“In military courts – which have jurisdiction over West Bank Palestinians – it establishes a near-mandatory death sentence,” the rights group said.

In civilian courts, the law’s stipulation that defendants must have acted “with the aim of negating the existence” of Israel “structurally excludes Jewish perpetrators”, the group added.

The association argued the law should be annulled on both jurisdictional and constitutional grounds.

During the debate in parliament, Ram Ben Barak, an opposition lawmaker and former deputy Mossad director, expressed outrage at the legislation.

“Do you understand what it means that there is one law for Arabs in Judea and Samaria, and a different law for the general public for which the State of Israel is responsible?” he asked fellow parliamentarians, using the Israeli name for the West Bank.

“It says that Hamas has defeated us. It has defeated us because we have lost all our values.”

The legislation was introduced by Limor Son Har-Melech, a lawmaker from Ben Gvir’s party who years ago survived an attack by Palestinian militants in which her husband was killed.

“For years, we endured a cruel cycle of terror, imprisonment, release in reckless deals, and the return of these human monsters to murder Jews again,” she said. “And today, my friends, this cycle has come full circle.”

The Palestinian Authority condemned the law’s adoption, saying that “Israel has no sovereignty over Palestinian land”.

“This law once again reveals the nature of the Israeli colonial system, which seeks to legitimise extrajudicial killing under legislative cover,” it added.

In February, Amnesty International urged Israeli lawmakers to reject the legislation, citing its “discriminatory application against Palestinians”.

Israel abolished the death penalty for murder in 1954. The only person ever executed in Israel after a civilian trial was Adolf Eichmann, an architect of the Holocaust, in 1962.

U.S. guarantees Israeli oil supply

March 31, 2026/1 Comment/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

But it’s only $3 billion more as of 2002 to our special ally so only bigots would get upset.

Israel is probably not worried if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The US guarantees the Jewish state an oil supply, even if experiencing domestic shortages:

The Guardian: “In 1975, Kissinger signed what forms the basis for the Haifa project: a Memorandum of Understanding… pic.twitter.com/1xhSlwbwnJ

— wvanwagenen (@WVanwagenen) March 14, 2026

Mark Wauck: Where Do American Jews Stand On The War On Iran?

March 30, 2026/9 Comments/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

Not sure we can trust any polling on Jews. Many may be thinking not of their real attitude but “what’s good for the Jews.” Nevertheless of interest.

Where Do American Jews Stand On The War On Iran?

Given that the war on Iran was instigated by Jewish Nationalists, it’s natural that there should be some curiosity about the views of Jews—more generally—regarding the war.

Toward the beginning of March a study was published that claimed that “connected Jews” overwhelmingly support the war.

68% of ‘connected’ American Jews support the US-Israel war against Iran, survey finds

That study, commissioned by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) came under fire because it surveyed only “connected” Jews.

The institute says its polls reflect the sentiments of “connected” Jews because its panel includes fewer intermarried Jews, more Jews who are affiliated with denominations and more Jews who have lived in Israel than demographic data would suggest is representative of U.S Jewry overall.

A new poll is now out, conducted by the Mellman Group:

Most American Jews disapprove of US military action against Iran, new poll shows

And a survey of “connected” American Jews detected declining support

In this new study it turns out that general Jewish opinion is closer to general American opinion—far more so than the poll of “connected Jews” would suggest. No doubt there are nuances to all this, but that’s the view from high altitude—limited to the war on Iran. And that should explain to readers why I have settled on the term “Jewish Nationalists” to describe the type of rabid support for the Jewish Supremacy Project.

The new poll found that 55% of American Jews oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, compared to just 32% who support it. The poll found a sharp partisan divide, in line with polling of Americans in general, with Republicans more supportive than Democrats.

For comparison, here are the latest findings from Fox:

The slight difference regarding Iran—close to or within the normal margin of error—may simply reflect that Jews are more generally interested in and concerned about Middle Eastern events.

Now, for an example of what nuances may be hidden by broad brush polling, we can look at a survey that dates back to October, 2025—so, after the 12 Day War, during the buildup to the current war, and with two years of the genocide in Gaza in the rear view mirror:

Poll: 40% of American Jews believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

You can find a somewhat more detailed discussion of this survey at the Times of Israel:

Poll: Nearly four in 10 US Jews say Israel has committed genocide in Gaza

WaPo survey also finds 68% blame Hamas more for civilian deaths; 76% say Israel’s existence is vital for Jewish future; 31% feel unsafe in US; two-thirds have negative view of Netanyahu

Here we find more of the emotional elements that got crunched into the numbers. Compared to American more generally, Jews are roughly as likely as other Americans to say that Israel is committing “war crimes” (61%)—but radically less likely to describe those crimes as “genocide”, even though pollsters did read the definition of genocide to those who participated in the survey. However, among younger Jews, the percentage who were willing to use the “G” word to describe what is going on rises to 50%. While that’s still significantly lower than American in general, it does as well reflect the inter-generational differences among all Americans.

Multiple polls have found that about 60% of Americans believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a biting charge that Israel and the United States reject.

Now, for the first time, a poll has taken the pulse of U.S. Jews specifically — and found that 39% of them hold the opinion.

These findings reflect a massive shift from a February 2024 survey by Pew, which had found that

62% of American Jews said the way Israel was carrying out the war against Hamas was acceptable.

The Times of Israel article concludes with a relatively lengthy look at more general views among American Jews regarding Israel:

US Jews’ overall support for Israel, however, appeared to be holding steady. The poll found that 56% of American Jews surveyed feel emotionally attached to Israel, similar to the 58% who said so in a 2020 Pew survey. However, among US Jews ages 18 to 34, only 36% feel an emotional attachment.

In addition, 76% said Israel’s existence is vital to the long-term future of the Jewish people, with 16% disagreeing. Nearly 60% said they had “a lot” or “some” in common with Israeli Jews.

And 59% of American Jews support continued US military aid to Israel to fight against Hamas, in contrast with multiple recent polls that have found most Americans overall oppose continued military aid to Israel.

The poll found, however, that 32% of American Jews feel the US is too supportive of Israel, as opposed to 22% in the 2020 Pew survey. The Post poll found that 47% of respondents think US support for Israel is at the right level, and 20% want Washington to be more supportive.

In contrast to Israelis, most of whom oppose Palestinian statehood, 59% of US Jews say a Palestinian state can coexist peacefully with Israel.

The poll also touched on antisemitism in the US, which, according to repeated surveys and law enforcement reports, has risen substantially since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack that began the war. The Washington Post found that 26% of respondents feel “not too” safe as Jews in the US, while six percent feel “not at all” safe. Eighteen percent feel “very” safe as Jews in the US, and 51% feel “somewhat” safe.

Seventy-one percent of respondents said being Jewish is important in their lives.

All of which suggests that the hijacking of America’s foreign policy has been accomplished by a well financed but relatively fringey, wild eyed, group of fanatical ideologues.

Most American Jews disapprove of US military action against Iran, new poll shows

March 30, 2026/3 Comments/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

Take this with a grain of salt. Performed by a company founded by Jewish Democratic pollster Mark Mellman…

Most American Jews disapprove of US military action against Iran, new poll shows

And a survey of “connected” American Jews detected declining support.

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida, on March 23, 2026. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

More than half of U.S. Jews disapprove of the U.S. war against Iran, according to a new poll by a nonpartisan polling firm.

At the same time, an Israeli survey of “connected” American Jews found a slight decrease in support for the joint U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran since its start a month ago.

The new poll found that 55% of American Jews oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, compared to just 32% who support it. The poll found a sharp partisan divide, in line with polling of Americans in general, with Republicans more supportive than Democrats.

A quarter of respondents said they were “torn because while Iran is a threat to peace, this is not the way to handle it.”

The survey was conducted online in mid-March by the Mellman Group, led until his death last year by Jewish Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, and included 800 registered Jewish voters.

The poll found that a large majority of U.S. Jews believe President Donald Trump should have sought congressional approval for the war — including nearly a third of those who support it. And about four in 10 said they opposed the war because it lacked “clear provocation and clear objectives.”

The survey also found that more than half of U.S. Jews say they are concerned that conducting the war jointly with Israel will “be a long-term problem prompting concerns about the role of Israel and American Jews in U.S. foreign policy.”

The results add complexity to the picture of American Jewish sentiment about the war. A poll released last week found that 61% of Americans overall oppose the war, suggesting that American Jews may be slightly more supportive overall — especially when considering that American Jews tend to vote Democratic.

Still, the new poll suggests that American Jews as a whole are less supportive than the “connected” American Jews surveyed regularly by Israel’s Jewish People Policy Institute. About two-thirds of that panel supported the war when surveyed during its first week, according to JPPI. Last week, that number was down to 62%, according to its latest results published on Sunday.

JPPI’s first survey of U.S. Jewish sentiment during the war drew criticism because it reflected the sentiments of a relatively narrow slice of American Jews. The institute says its polls reflect the sentiments of “connected” Jews because its panel, drawn from people with ties to American Jewish groups, includes fewer intermarried Jews, more Jews who are affiliated with denominations, more Orthodox Jews and more Jews who have lived in Israel than demographic data would suggest is representative of U.S Jewry overall.

The Mellman Group’s executive vice president, Michael Bloomfield, said in a statement that his poll’s results underscore the complexity of American Jewish sentiment about the war.

“American Jews are not monolithic. There can be difference, and in this case strongly held on both sides, with a middle group torn between mixed feelings,” he said in a statement. “In today’s political environment, partisanship is a very strong driver of views. That is true across the country across demographics, including American Jews.”

Mark Wauck: Monday Morning, Fake News First

March 30, 2026/in General/by Kevin MacDonald

I’m listening to Alastair Crooke right now and he’s saying Trump’s claim of negotiations and a new regime are simply not true. There are no negotiations. What happens, he says, is that the US attempts to send messages to Iran via Egypt or Pakistan or some other regional government. Sometimes Iran simply refuses to accept the message, at other times they send back a simple response: No! But there are no negotiations. In fact, Trump said last night: “We’re negotiating with [Iran] directly and indirectly.” Uh, why would you negotiate indirectly with a party with whom you are having direct negotiations??

Monday Morning, Fake News First

This has become a pattern. Over the weekend investors ponder what’s going on. Trump reacts by, first thing Monday, promulgating Fake News—i.e., lies—in order to try to head off adverse market reactions to the Real News. Later in the week, reality sets in.

Luke Gromen @LukeGromen

13h

Interestingly, last week multiple senior fund managers pointed out to me that this pattern has held for each of the last 3 weeks:

“TACO/positive news” Monday, “uh-oh” by Wednesday, “dumpster fire” by Friday

Quote

محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf

17h

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator.

Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long.

It looks like Iran’s trading advice works:

And so this morning …

Please note: “we will conclude our ‘lovely’ stay in Iran”. That sounds like an intended TACO. Nice try.

Patarames @Pataramesh

6h

Maximum Pain Tactic:

Trump greenlighted a massive USraeli attack over the weekend against Iran, mobilizing all available airpower assets.

 The goal was to shock the population & force an overreaction

 But as global markets open today, Iran did not enter the escalate to de-escalate game.

You don’t do that if cards & time are yours

…

I’m listening to Alastair Crooke right now and he’s saying Trump’s claim of negotiations and a new regime are simply not true. There are no negotiations. What happens, he says, is that the US attempts to send messages to Iran via Egypt or Pakistan or some other regional government. Sometimes Iran simply refuses to accept the message, at other times they send back a simple response: No! But there are no negotiations. In fact, Trump said last night: “We’re negotiating with [Iran] directly and indirectly.” Uh, why would you negotiate indirectly with a party with whom you are having direct negotiations??

Another attempt to gaslight the markets this morning:

Iran is simply conducting diplomacy among regional countries—and Pakistan has been supportive to Iran at times. Nothing has changed.

Professor Marandi sent a bit different response to Trump’s latest message, which gets to the heart of Trump’s panic:

Seyed Mohammad Marandi @s_m_marandi

52m

And we will destroy everything on the other side of the Persian Gulf, which will result in years of global economic depression.